170: Conferences and points-per-shot

Load data

library(rlang)
library(cbbplotR)


# load data
unc_shots <- readr::read_csv("unc-shots.csv")


gt_save_crop <- function(data, file = NULL, bg = "white", whitespace = 50, zoom = 2, expand = 5) {
  tmp <- tempfile(fileext = ".png")
  
  # Wrap the gtsave_extra call in a tryCatch to handle errors
  tryCatch({
    gtExtras::gtsave_extra(data, tmp, zoom = zoom, expand = expand)
  }, error = function(e) {
    # If there's an error, try using regular gt::gtsave instead
    message("gtsave_extra failed, trying gt::gtsave...")
    gt::gtsave(data, tmp, zoom = zoom, expand = expand)
  })
  
  magick::image_read(tmp) |> 
    magick::image_trim() |> 
    magick::image_border(bg, glue::glue('{whitespace}x{whitespace}')) |> 
    magick::image_write(file)
  unlink(tmp)
}

UNC points per shot

ss_wide <- unc_shots |>
  dplyr::mutate(
    two_point_rate = two_point_rate * 100,
    three_point_rate = three_point_rate * 100
  ) |>
  dplyr::group_by(opp) |>
  dplyr::mutate(
    date = max(date, na.rm = TRUE),
    score = dplyr::first(score[!is.na(score)])
  ) |>
  dplyr::ungroup() |>
  tidyr::pivot_wider(
    id_cols = c(opp, date, score),
    names_from = side,
    values_from = c(
      two_point_per_shot, two_point_makes_attempts,
      three_point_per_shot, three_point_makes_attempts
    )
  ) |>
  dplyr::arrange(date)

pps_tbl <- ss_wide |>
  dplyr::mutate(
    result = dplyr::if_else(
      opp %in% c("Kansas", "Kentucky", "Ohio St."),
      "Wins", "Losses"
    )
  ) |> 
  cbbplotR::gt_cbb_teams(opp, opp) |>
  gt::gt(groupname_col = "result") |>
  gt::cols_hide(date) |> 
  gtUtils::gt_theme_savant() |>
  gt::fmt_markdown(opp) |>
  gt::fmt_number(
    columns = c(two_point_per_shot_Offense, two_point_per_shot_Defense,
                three_point_per_shot_Offense, three_point_per_shot_Defense),
    decimals = 2
  ) |>
  gtExtras::gt_merge_stack(
    col1 = opp,
    col2 = score,
    palette = c("black", "#333333"),
    small_cap = FALSE
  ) |>
  gtExtras::gt_merge_stack(
    col1 = two_point_per_shot_Offense,
    col2 = two_point_makes_attempts_Offense,
    palette = c("black", "#333333")
  ) |>
  gtExtras::gt_merge_stack(
    col1 = two_point_per_shot_Defense,
    col2 = two_point_makes_attempts_Defense,
    palette = c("black", "#333333")
  ) |>
  gtExtras::gt_merge_stack(
    col1 = three_point_per_shot_Offense,
    col2 = three_point_makes_attempts_Offense,
    palette = c("black", "#333333")
  ) |>
  gtExtras::gt_merge_stack(
    col1 = three_point_per_shot_Defense,
    col2 = three_point_makes_attempts_Defense,
    palette = c("black", "#333333")
  ) |>
  gt::cols_align(align = "left", columns = opp) |>
  gt::cols_add(diff_gap = "", .before = three_point_per_shot_Offense) |>
  gtUtils::gt_column_subheaders(
    two_point_per_shot_Offense = list(heading = "PPS", subtitle = "2PTM-2PTA"),
    two_point_per_shot_Defense = list(heading = "PPS", subtitle = "2PTM-2PTA"),
    three_point_per_shot_Offense = list(heading = "PPS", subtitle = "3PTM-2PTA"),
    three_point_per_shot_Defense = list(heading = "PPS", subtitle = "3PTM-2PTA"),
    heading_color = "black",
    subtitle_color = "gray"
  ) |> 
  gt::cols_label(
    opp = "",
    diff_gap = ""
  ) |>
  gt::tab_spanner(label = "2PT Offense", columns = two_point_per_shot_Offense) |>
  gt::tab_spanner(label = "2PT Defense", columns = two_point_per_shot_Defense) |>
  gt::tab_spanner(label = "3PT Offense", columns = three_point_per_shot_Offense) |>
  gt::tab_spanner(label = "3PT Defense", columns = three_point_per_shot_Defense) |>
  gt::tab_style(
    style = list(gt::cell_borders(
      sides = c("left", "right", "top", "bottom"),
      color = "black",
      weight = gt::px(2)
    )),
    locations = list(
      gt::cells_body(),
      gt::cells_column_labels(),
      gt::cells_column_spanners()
    )
  ) |>
  gt::tab_header(
    title = "Quality opponents are outscoring Carolina from the 3PT line",
    subtitle = gt::html("Carolina is 3-4 against kenpom Tier A opponents so far during the 2025-26 season.<br>These opponents have combined to score 1.33 points per 3PT shot to Carolina's 0.95 points per 3PT shot.")
  ) |>
  gtUtils::gt_538_caption(
    "Chart shows the points-per-shot for 2PTers and 3PTers.<br>
    Data via kenpom.com + barttorvik.com | theme via {gtUtils} and logos from ESPN",
    "<b>Table by Chris at Bless your chart</b>"
  ) |>
  gtExtras::gt_highlight_rows(
    columns = c(two_point_per_shot_Offense),
    rows = c(1, 2, 4, 6, 7),
    fill = "#56a0d3",
    alpha = 0.6
  ) |>
  gtExtras::gt_highlight_rows(
    columns = c(two_point_per_shot_Defense),
    rows = c(3, 5),
    fill = "lightpink",
    alpha = 0.6
  ) |> 
  gtExtras::gt_highlight_rows(
    columns = c(three_point_per_shot_Offense),
    rows = c(3, 4),
    fill = "#56a0d3",
    alpha = 0.6
  ) |>
  gtExtras::gt_highlight_rows(
    columns = c(three_point_per_shot_Defense),
    rows = c(1, 2, 5, 6, 7),
    fill = "lightpink",
    alpha = 0.6
  ) |>
  gt::tab_style(
    style = gt::cell_text(weight = "bold"),
    locations = gt::cells_column_spanners()
  ) |>
  gtUtils::gt_border_bars_bottom(c("#56a0d3", "#89BDE0", "#BBD9ED")) |>
  gt::tab_options(table.width = gt::px(600))

gt_save_crop(pps_tbl,
             file = "pps_tbl.png",
             whitespace = 60,
             bg = "white")


pps_tbl

Quality opponents are outscoring Carolina from the 3PT line
Carolina is 3-4 against kenpom Tier A opponents so far during the 2025-26 season. These opponents have combined to score 1.33 points per 3PT shot to Carolina's 0.95 points per 3PT shot.
1	2PT Offense	2PT Defense	1	3PT Offense	3PT Defense
	PPS 2PTM-2PTA 1	PPS 2PTM-2PTA 1		PPS 3PTM-2PTA 1	PPS 3PTM-2PTA 1
Wins
Kansas W, 87-74	1.33 26-39	0.85 14-33		0.89 8-27	1.44 12-25
Kentucky W, 67-64	0.91 20-44	1.10 22-40		0.90 6-20	0.23 1-13
Ohio St. W, 71-70	1.11 20-36	0.98 21-43		0.89 8-27	0.60 4-20
Losses
Michigan St. L, 58-74	1.06 17-32	1.04 26-50		0.52 4-23	1.50 5-10
SMU L, 83-97	1.06 17-32	1.33 22-33		1.29 12-28	1.56 14-27
Stanford L, 90-95	1.33 26-39	1.14 16-28		1.12 6-16	1.71 16-28
California L, 78-84	1.17 17-29	0.94 15-32		1.00 9-27	1.62 14-26
Table by Chris at Bless your chart
1 Chart shows the points-per-shot for 2PTers and 3PTers. Data via kenpom.com + barttorvik.com | theme via {gtUtils} and logos from ESPN

Conf tbl

powers <- readr::read_csv("power-conf.csv") |> 
  dplyr::select(-...1)

conf_tbl <- powers |>
    dplyr::mutate(
      teams = dplyr::case_match(conf,
          "B10" ~ "18 teams",
          "ACC" ~ "18 teams", 
          "MWC" ~ "12 teams", 
          "SEC" ~ "16 teams", 
          "B12" ~ "16 teams", 
          "BE" ~ "11 teams")
    ) |> 
    cbbplotR::gt_cbb_conferences(conf, conf, include_name = FALSE) |> 
    dplyr::arrange(home_win_pct) |> 
    gt::gt() |> 
    gt::fmt_markdown(columns = c(conf, home_wins, away_wins)) |> 
    gtUtils::gt_theme_savant() |>
    gtExtras::gt_merge_stack(
        col1 = home_win_pct,
        col2 = home_rec,
        palette = c("black", "#333333")
    ) |>
    gtExtras::gt_merge_stack(
        col1 = conf,
        col2 = teams,
        palette = c("black", "#333333")
    ) |>
    gt::cols_align(align = "left", columns = conf) |>
    gtUtils::gt_column_subheaders(
        home_win_pct = list(heading = "Home Win %", subtitle = "W-L"),
        away_wins = list(heading = "Best Road Wins", subtitle = "WAB (Wins-Above-Bubble)"),
        home_wins = list(heading = "Best Home Wins", subtitle = "WAB (Wins-Above-Bubble)"),
        heading_color = "black",
        subtitle_color = "gray"
    ) |> 
    gt::cols_label(
        conf = ""
    ) |>
    gt::cols_hide(columns = c(games_remaining, avg_margin)) |> 
    gt::tab_style(
        style = list(gt::cell_borders(
            sides = c("left", "right", "top", "bottom"),
            color = "black",
            weight = gt::px(2)
        )),
        locations = list(
            gt::cells_body(),
            gt::cells_column_labels(),
            gt::cells_column_spanners()
        )
    ) |>
    gt::data_color(
    columns = c(home_win_pct),
    direction = c("column"),
    method = c("numeric"),
    palette = c("#d7191c", "#fdae61", "#ffffbf", "#a6d96a", "#1a9641"),
    domain = c(35, 75),
    alpha = 0.6,
  ) |> 
    gt::tab_header(
        title = gt::html("It <em>pays</em> to win on the road in conference play"),
        subtitle = gt::html("Shows home win percentage and <em>best</em> wins at home and on the road using Wins-Above-Bubble in league play for the six <em>power</em> conferences through January 23 games.")
    ) |>
    gtUtils::gt_538_caption(
        "Top 3 wins at home and on road shown per conference (ties in WAB are not included)<br>
        Data via barttorvik.com | theme via {gtUtils} and logos from ESPN",
        "<b>Table by Chris at Bless your chart</b>"
    ) |> 
    
      gtUtils::gt_border_bars_bottom(c("#0d1e2d", "#c1d6e2",
                                   "#f07e1d")) |> 
  gt::tab_options(table.width = gt::px(490))

gt_save_crop(conf_tbl,
             file = "conf_tbl.png",
             whitespace = 60,
             bg = "white")

conf_tbl

It pays to win on the road in conference play
Shows home win percentage and best wins at home and on the road using Wins-Above-Bubble in league play for the six power conferences through January 23 games.
1	Home Win % W-L 1	Best Road Wins WAB (Wins-Above-Bubble) 1	Best Home Wins WAB (Wins-Above-Bubble) 1
18 teams	50.9 28-27	+0.87 84-73 +0.87 79-70 +0.80 80-76	+0.69 95-85 +0.64 80-76 +0.45 74-70
11 teams	52.2 24-22	+0.81 77-71 +0.74 76-72 +0.74 86-79	+0.34 65-60 +0.31 79-60 +0.31 89-85
18 teams	52.7 39-35	+0.95 91-88 +0.90 83-80 +0.84 75-69	+0.70 69-67 +0.66 58-56 +0.59 71-52
12 teams	58.3 28-20	+0.73 86-76 +0.59 70-60 +0.59 73-68	+0.43 84-74 +0.37 62-53 +0.37 83-79
16 teams	59.6 28-19	+0.87 98-94 +0.85 92-88 +0.84 80-78	+0.69 76-74 +0.64 80-64 +0.64 93-68
16 teams	68.1 32-15	+0.65 67-60 +0.63 84-77 +0.63 86-73	+0.66 84-63 +0.66 79-70 +0.63 81-75
Table by Chris at Bless your chart
1 Top 3 wins at home and on road shown per conference (ties in WAB are not included) Data via barttorvik.com | theme via {gtUtils} and logos from ESPN