158: Conference data and underdog winners

gtUtils
gtExtras
Published

October 21, 2025

Load data

Code 
library(rlang)
library(cbbplotR)

# gt save function
gt_save_crop <- function(data,
                         file = NULL,
                         bg = "white",
                         whitespace = 50,
                         zoom = 2,
                         expand = 5) {
  tmp <- tempfile(fileext = ".png")
  
  tryCatch({
    gtExtras::gtsave_extra(data, tmp, zoom = zoom, expand = expand)
  }, error = function(e) {
    message("gtsave_extra failed, trying gt::gtsave...")
    gt::gtsave(data, tmp, zoom = zoom, expand = expand)
  })
  
  magick::image_read(tmp) |> 
    magick::image_trim() |> 
    magick::image_border(bg, glue::glue('{whitespace}x{whitespace}')) |> 
    magick::image_write(file)
  unlink(tmp)
}

Double-digit dogs

Code 
dd_dogs <- readr::read_csv("dd-dogs.csv")

dogs <- dd_dogs |>
  dplyr::arrange(Spread) |>
  dplyr::mutate(fweek = paste0("Week", " ", Week)) |>
  dplyr::select(fweek, Date, Team, Opponent, Location, Spread, fscore)


custom_header <- glue::glue(
  "<div style='display: flex; justify-content: space-between; align-items: center;'>
      <div>
       <img src='https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/redesign/assets/img/icons/ESPN-icon-football-college.png'
       style='height: 40px; width: auto; vertical-align: middle;'>
     </div>
     <div style='flex-grow:1; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 30px'>
       <span style='display: block; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; font-size: 24px;'>Double-digit favorites that have lost outright</span>
       <span style='font-size: 12px; font-weight: normal; display: block; text-align: center;'>2025 season through Week 8 games showing double-digit favorites that have lost outright.</span>
     </div>
     <div>
       <img src='https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/redesign/assets/img/icons/ESPN-icon-football-college.png'
       style='height: 40px; width: auto; vertical-align: middle;'>
     </div>
   </div>
  <br>"
)



dd_tbl <- dogs |>
  cbbplotR::gt_cbb_teams(Team, Team) |>
  cbbplotR::gt_cbb_teams(Opponent, Opponent) |>
  dplyr::select(fweek, Date, Spread, Team, Opponent, Location, fscore) |>
  gt::gt() |>
  gtUtils::gt_theme_gtutils() |>
  gt::fmt_markdown(columns = c(Team, Opponent)) |>
  gtExtras::gt_merge_stack(col1 = Date, col2 = fweek) |>
  gtExtras::gt_merge_stack(col1 = fscore, col2 = Location) |>
  gt::cols_align(columns = c(Team, Opponent), align = "left") |>
  gt::cols_align(columns = c(Spread), align = "right") |>
  gtUtils::gt_column_subheaders(
    Date =  list(heading = "Date", subtitle = "Week"),
    fscore =  list(heading = "Final Score", subtitle = "Location"),
    Spread = list(heading = "Point Spread", subtitle = "Favored by?"),
    Team =  list(heading = "Favorite", subtitle = "Losing Team"),
    Location =  list(heading = "Location", subtitle = "Home/Away"),
    Opponent =  list(heading = "Underdog", subtitle = "Opponent (Winning team)"),
    heading_color = "black",
    subtitle_color = "gray"
  ) |>
  gt::tab_header(title = gt::html(custom_header)) |>
  gt::tab_source_note(
    source_note =
      gt::html(
        "<hr>Data via TeamRankings.com BetIQ | theme via {gtUtils} <br>
        Data for 2025 season through Week 8 or October 18 games.<br>
        <hr><b>Table by Chris at Bless your chart</b>"
      )
  ) |>
  gtUtils::gt_border_bars_bottom(c("#636363", "#969696", "#cccccc")) |>
  gtUtils::gt_border_grid(color = "black",
                          weight = 1,
                          include_labels = FALSE) |>
  gt::tab_style(
    locations = gt::cells_source_notes(),
    style = gt::cell_text(
      font = gt::google_font("Signika Negative"),
      size = gt::px(10.5),
      weight = 250
    )
  ) |>
  gt::tab_style(
    style = list(gt::cell_text(
      font = gt::google_font("Signika Negative"),
      size = gt::px(14)
    )),
    locations = gt::cells_body(
      rows = gt::everything(),
      columns = gt::everything()
    )
  )

gt_save_crop(dd_tbl,
             file = "dd_tbl.png",
             whitespace = 60,
             bg = "#FFFDF5")

dd_tbl
Double-digit favorites that have lost outright 2025 season through Week 8 games showing double-digit favorites that have lost outright.

Date
Week
Point Spread
Favored by?
Favorite
Losing Team
Underdog
Opponent (Winning team)
Final Score
Location
10/4/25
Week 6
-25.5 Penn St. UCLA
L, 37-42
Away
10/18/25
Week 8
-24.5 Memphis UAB
L, 24-31
Away
10/11/25
Week 7
-20.5 Penn St. Northwestern
L, 21-22
Home
9/6/25
Week 2
-18.0 Florida South Florida
L, 16-18
Home
9/20/25
Week 4
-17.5 Clemson Syracuse
L, 21-34
Home
10/18/25
Week 8
-17.5 Florida St. Stanford
L, 13-20
Away
9/6/25
Week 2
-17.0 Kansas St. Army
L, 21-24
Home
9/12/25
Week 3
-15.5 UCLA New Mexico
L, 10-35
Home
9/20/25
Week 4
-15.0 South Alabama Coastal Carolina
L, 20-38
Home
10/11/25
Week 7
-14.5 Old Dominion Marshall
L, 24-48
Away
9/20/25
Week 4
-14.0 California San Diego St.
L, 0-34
Away
9/13/25
Week 3
-14.0 Boston College Stanford
L, 20-30
Away
10/4/25
Week 6
-14.0 Ohio Ball St.
L, 14-20
Away
8/29/25
Week 1
-14.0 San Jose St. Central Michigan
L, 14-16
Home
8/30/25
Week 1
-13.5 Alabama Florida St.
L, 17-31
Away
10/4/25
Week 6
-13.5 Texas St. Arkansas St.
L, 30-31
Away
9/20/25
Week 4
-13.0 Toledo Western Michigan
L, 13-14
Away
10/11/25
Week 7
-11.0 Toledo Bowling Green
L, 23-28
Away
9/20/25
Week 4
-10.5 Wisconsin Maryland
L, 10-27
Home
10/18/25
Week 8
-10.5 Appalachian St. Coastal Carolina
L, 37-45
Home
10/11/25
Week 7
-10.5 Florida St. Pittsburgh
L, 31-34
Home
10/14/25
Week 8
-10.0 Western Kentucky FIU
L, 6-25
Home
9/19/25
Week 4
-10.0 Oklahoma St. Tulsa
L, 12-19
Home
10/17/25
Week 8
-10.0 Miami FL Louisville
L, 21-24
Home
8/30/25
Week 1
-10.0 Louisiana Lafayette Rice
L, 12-14
Home
Data via TeamRankings.com BetIQ | theme via {gtUtils}
Data for 2025 season through Week 8 or October 18 games.
Table by Chris at Bless your chart

Conference fun

Code 
conf_stats <- tibble::tibble(
  Conf = c(
    "SEC",
    "Big 10",
    "Big 12",
    "ACC",
    "American",
    "Mountain West",
    "Sun Belt",
    "MAC",
    "CUSA"
  ),
  Teams = c(16, 18, 16, 17, 14, 12, 14, 13, 12),
  `vs FBS` = c(
    "34-5 (0.872)",
    "30-8 (0.789)",
    "22-9 (0.710)",
    "20-16 (0.556)",
    "19-15 (0.559)",
    "14-19 (0.424)",
    "12-28 (0.300)",
    "5-31 (0.139)",
    "7-23 (0.233)"
  ),
  `vs P4` = c(
    "9-3 (0.750)",
    "5-5 (0.500)",
    "8-6 (0.571)",
    "4-12 (0.250)",
    "6-11 (0.353)",
    "4-11 (0.267)",
    "1-16 (0.059)",
    "1-23 (0.042)",
    "0-11 (0.000)"
  ),
  `Avg %tile` = c(.846, .732, .683, .596, .403, .368, .283, .208, .171),
  Games = c(30, 36, 32, 29, 25, 19, 22, 21, 17),
  `Home%` = c(.633, .500, .625, .379, .600, .684, .591, .714, .471),
  `Avg Pts` = c(49.0, 49.4, 55.6, 53.5, 59.2, 63.7, 58.8, 46.6, 49.3),
  `Avg Diff` = c(10.0, 15.6, 14.6, 13.0, 19.2, 12.6, 14.0, 15.9, 14.2)
) |>
  dplyr::select(
    conf = Conf,
    teams = Teams,
    games = Games,
    home_wp = `Home%`,
    avg_diff = `Avg Diff`,
    avg_total = `Avg Pts`,
    `vs FBS`,
    `vs P4`,
    fplus = `Avg %tile`
  ) |>
  dplyr::mutate(
    fbs_rec = stringr::str_extract(`vs FBS`, "\\d+-\\d+"),
    p4_rec = stringr::str_extract(`vs P4`, "\\d+-\\d+"),
    fbs_pct = as.numeric(stringr::str_extract(`vs FBS`, "(?<=\\()\\d+\\.\\d+(?=\\))")),
    p4_pct = as.numeric(stringr::str_extract(`vs P4`, "(?<=\\()\\d+\\.\\d+(?=\\))"))
  ) |>
  dplyr::select(-`vs FBS`, -`vs P4`)


conf_header <- glue::glue(
  "<div style='display: flex; justify-content: space-between; align-items: center;'>
      <div>
       <img src='https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/redesign/assets/img/icons/ESPN-icon-football-college.png'
       style='height: 40px; width: auto; vertical-align: middle;'>
     </div>
     <div style='flex-grow:1; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 30px'>
       <span style='display: block; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; font-size: 24px;'>FBS conference performance through Week 8</span>
       <span style='font-size: 12px; font-weight: normal; display: block; text-align: center;'>Average team quality (percentile), overall records against FBS/P4 opponents, and conference play stats (home advantage, scoring, competitiveness).</span>
     </div>
     <div>
       <img src='https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/redesign/assets/img/icons/ESPN-icon-football-college.png'
       style='height: 40px; width: auto; vertical-align: middle;'>
     </div>
   </div>
  <br>"
)



conf_tbl <- conf_stats |>
  dplyr::mutate(teams = paste0(teams, " ", "teams"),
                games = paste0(games, " ", "games")) |>
  dplyr::select(
    conf,
    teams,
    fplus,
    fbs_rec,
    fbs_pct,
    p4_rec,
    p4_pct,
    games,
    home_wp,
    avg_diff,
    avg_total
  ) |>
  gt::gt() |>
  gtUtils::gt_theme_gtutils() |>
  gtExtras::gt_merge_stack(
    col1 = conf,
    col2 = teams,
    palette = c("black", "#333333"),
    small_cap = FALSE
  ) |>
  gtExtras::gt_merge_stack(
    col1 = fbs_pct,
    col2 = fbs_rec,
    palette = c("black", "#333333"),
    small_cap = FALSE
  ) |>
  gtExtras::gt_merge_stack(
    col1 = p4_pct,
    col2 = p4_rec,
    palette = c("black", "#333333"),
    small_cap = FALSE
  ) |>
  gtExtras::gt_merge_stack(
    col1 = home_wp,
    col2 = games,
    palette = c("black", "#333333"),
    small_cap = FALSE
  ) |>
  gt::cols_align(conf, align = "left") |>
  gtUtils::gt_column_subheaders(
    fbs_pct =  list(heading = "vs FBS", subtitle = "W-L (pct)"),
    p4_pct =  list(heading = "vs P4", subtitle = "W-L (pct)"),
    fplus =  list(heading = "Avg F+", subtitle = "Percentile"),
    conf =  list(heading = "Conference", subtitle = "# of teams"),
    home_wp = list(heading = "Home Win%", subtitle = "# of games"),
    avg_diff =  list(heading = "Avg Margin", subtitle = "Differential"),
    avg_total =  list(heading = "Avg Total", subtitle = "Combined Points"),
    heading_color = "black",
    subtitle_color = "gray"
  ) |>
  gt::tab_spanner(columns = c(games, home_wp, avg_diff, avg_total),
                  label = "League Play Only") |>
  gt::tab_spanner(columns = c(fplus, fbs_pct, p4_pct), label = "Non-Conference") |>
  gt::tab_header(title = gt::html(conf_header)) |>
  gt::tab_source_note(
    source_note =
      gt::html(
        "<hr>Data via collegefootballdata.com, bcftoys.com, and ESPN+ | theme via {gtUtils} <hr>
        F+ percentiles are computed by Brian Fremeau's FEI ratings and Bill Connelly's SP+ ratings<br>
        P4 conferences: SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12<br>
        Excludes Pac-12 conference (Oregon State, Washington State) and FBS Independents (Notre Dame, UConn)<br>
        Data for 2025 season through Week 8 or October 18 games.<br>
        <hr><b>Table by Chris at Bless your chart</b>"
      )
  ) |>
  gtUtils::gt_border_bars_bottom(c("#636363", "#969696", "#cccccc")) |>
  gtUtils::gt_border_grid(color = "black",
                          weight = 1,
                          include_labels = FALSE) |>
  gtExtras::gt_add_divider(columns = home_wp,
                           sides = "left",
                           color = "black") |>
  gt::tab_style(
    locations = gt::cells_source_notes(),
    style = gt::cell_text(
      font = gt::google_font("Signika Negative"),
      size = gt::px(10.5),
      weight = 250
    )
  ) |>
  gt::tab_style(
    style = list(gt::cell_text(
      font = gt::google_font("Signika Negative"),
      size = gt::px(14)
    )),
    locations = gt::cells_body(
      rows = gt::everything(),
      columns = gt::everything()
    )
  ) |>
  gt::fmt_percent(fplus, decimals = 1) |> 
  gt::data_color(
    columns = c(fplus, fbs_pct, p4_pct),
    direction = c("column"),
    method = c("numeric"),
    palette = c("#d7191c", "#fdae61", "#ffffbf", "#a6d96a", "#1a9641"),
    domain = c(0, .9),
    alpha = 0.6,
  ) |>
  gt::data_color(
    columns = c(home_wp),
    direction = c("column"),
    method = c("numeric"),
    palette = c("#d7191c", "#fdae61", "#ffffbf", "#a6d96a", "#1a9641"),
    domain = c(.25, .75),
    alpha = 0.6,
  ) |>
  gt::data_color(
    columns = c(avg_diff),
    direction = c("column"),
    method = c("numeric"),
    palette = c("#008837", "#a6dba0", "#f7f7f7", "#c2a5cf", "#7b3294"),
    domain = c(9.5, 20),
    alpha = 0.6,
  ) |>
  gt::data_color(
    columns = c(avg_total),
    direction = c("column"),
    method = c("numeric"),
    palette = c("#2166ac", "#4393c3", "#d1e5f0", "#fddbc7",                         "#f4a582", "#d6604d", "#b2182b"),
    domain = c(45, 65),
    alpha = 0.6,
  ) |>
  gt::tab_style(
    locations = gt::cells_column_spanners(),
    style = gt::cell_text(
      font = gt::google_font("Signika Negative"),
      weight = 850,
      size = gt::px(15)
    )
  ) |>
  gt::tab_options(table.width = gt::px(625))

gt_save_crop(conf_tbl,
             file = "conf_tbl.png",
             whitespace = 60,
             bg = "#FFFDF5")

conf_tbl
FBS conference performance through Week 8 Average team quality (percentile), overall records against FBS/P4 opponents, and conference play stats (home advantage, scoring, competitiveness).

Conference
# of teams
Non-Conference
League Play Only
Avg F+
Percentile
vs FBS
W-L (pct)
vs P4
W-L (pct)
Home Win%
# of games
Avg Margin
Differential
Avg Total
Combined Points
SEC
16 teams
84.6%
0.872
34-5
0.750
9-3
0.633
30 games
10.0 49.0
Big 10
18 teams
73.2%
0.789
30-8
0.500
5-5
0.500
36 games
15.6 49.4
Big 12
16 teams
68.3%
0.710
22-9
0.571
8-6
0.625
32 games
14.6 55.6
ACC
17 teams
59.6%
0.556
20-16
0.250
4-12
0.379
29 games
13.0 53.5
American
14 teams
40.3%
0.559
19-15
0.353
6-11
0.600
25 games
19.2 59.2
Mountain West
12 teams
36.8%
0.424
14-19
0.267
4-11
0.684
19 games
12.6 63.7
Sun Belt
14 teams
28.3%
0.300
12-28
0.059
1-16
0.591
22 games
14.0 58.8
MAC
13 teams
20.8%
0.139
5-31
0.042
1-23
0.714
21 games
15.9 46.6
CUSA
12 teams
17.1%
0.233
7-23
0.000
0-11
0.471
17 games
14.2 49.3
Data via collegefootballdata.com, bcftoys.com, and ESPN+ | theme via {gtUtils}
F+ percentiles are computed by Brian Fremeau's FEI ratings and Bill Connelly's SP+ ratings
P4 conferences: SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12
Excludes Pac-12 conference (Oregon State, Washington State) and FBS Independents (Notre Dame, UConn)
Data for 2025 season through Week 8 or October 18 games.
Table by Chris at Bless your chart