South Region: Team PerformanceGame Score (GS) is calculated by Bart Torvik on a per game basis.
Shows odds to win the region, the season average and average GS over the last 10 games, the best/worst games, and performance over time for every team.
Seed
Odds % to win Region
Game Score
Over time
Avg Season
Best Game
Worst Game
Last 10 Games
1
Auburn
28-5
46.3%
95.8
99.9
W, Ohio St. 91-53
74.7
L, Texas A&M 72-83
94.2
16
Alabama St.
19-15
0.0%
31.9
93.1
W, Nebraska Omaha 85-67
1.3
L, Norfolk St. 54-71
40.2
8
Louisville
27-7
4.4%
85.2
99.7
W, SMU 98-73
24.3
L, Mississippi 63-86
91.7
9
Creighton
24-10
1.0%
81.0
99.4
W, DePaul 73-49
13.9
L, Georgetown 57-81
80.3
5
Michigan
25-9
3.3%
85.2
99.5
W, Xavier 78-53
15.7
L, Purdue 64-91
80.1
12
UC San Diego
28-4
0.7%
78.3
99.6
W, Hawaii 83-44
7.5
L, Seattle 71-84
87.8
4
Texas A&M
22-10
6.6%
89.1
99.4
W, Auburn 83-72
58.3
W, Southern 71-54
87.1
13
Yale
21-7
0.1%
70.0
97.6
W, Harvard 84-55
15.6
L, Harvard 69-74
65.8
6
Mississippi
22-11
2.5%
83.9
99.7
W, Louisville 86-63
15.0
W, Grambling St. 66-64
82.2
11
North Carolina
23-13
2.2%
83.7
99.5
W, San Diego St. 95-68
49.7
W, Boston College 102-96
94.0
3
Iowa St.
24-9
15.5%
88.1
99.5
W, Arizona 84-67
30.5
L, Kansas St. 61-80
89.5
14
Lipscomb
23-9
0.0%
63.7
97.3
W, Alabama A&M 82-44
11.1
L, Eastern Kentucky 57-66
67.8
7
Marquette
23-10
2.6%
84.6
99.8
W, Providence 78-50
28.7
L, Villanova 66-81
82.7
10
New Mexico
25-7
0.9%
79.3
99.1
W, Boise St. 84-65
34.5
W, Wyoming 71-67
76.5
2
Michigan St.
27-6
13.9%
87.8
99.7
W, Washington 88-54
37.1
W, Bowling Green 86-72
93.5
15
Bryant
21-11
0.0%
50.8
95.6
W, Buffalo 87-64
1.9
L, Grand Canyon 66-112
50.5
Table by Chris at Bless your Chart & Ryan at Fifth Factor | data from Bart Torvik and cbbplotR | March 19, 2025
Yahoo and Torvik data
Code
bodds <- readr::read_csv("yahoo.csv")bodds_tbl <- bodds |> dplyr::mutate(f4pick = f4pick *100, delta = F4 - f4pick) |> dplyr::arrange(-f4pick) |> dplyr::relocate(f4pick) |> dplyr::filter(f4pick >3) |> dplyr::mutate(F4 = F4/100,f4pick = f4pick/100 ) |> dplyr::mutate(color_f4pick = dplyr::case_when( f4pick > .25~"orange", f4pick <= .25& f4pick > F4 ~"yellow", f4pick <= .25& f4pick <= F4 ~"lightgreen" ) ) |> dplyr::select(F4, Team, Seed, Region, f4pick, color_f4pick)bodds_tbl |> cbbplotR::gt_cbb_teams(Team, Team,logo_height =15) |> dplyr::arrange(-F4, -f4pick) |> gt::gt() |> gt::cols_hide(color_f4pick) |> gt::fmt_markdown(columns = Team) |> gtExtras::gt_theme_dot_matrix() |> gt::cols_align(align ="left", columns =c("Team", "Region")) |> gt::cols_align(align ="right", columns =c("F4", "Seed", "f4pick")) |> gtUtils::gt_color_pills( F4,domain =c(0, .7),format_type ="percent",digits =1,palette =c("#8B0000", "#FF0000", "#FF4500", "#ADFF2F", "#008000"),pill_height =15, ) |> gt::fmt_percent(f4pick, decimals =1) |> gt::data_color(columns = f4pick,fn =function(x) { dplyr::case_when( x >0.25~"orange", x <=0.25& x > bodds_tbl$F4[match(x, bodds_tbl$f4pick)] ~"yellow", x <=0.25& x <= bodds_tbl$F4[match(x, bodds_tbl$f4pick)] ~"lightgreen",TRUE~"black" ) },alpha =0.6 ) |> gt::cols_label(F4 ="Odds", Team ="",Seed ="Seed", Region ="Region", f4pick ="Pick %", ) |> gt::tab_header(title = gt::md("**Final Four Odds vs Yahoo Bracket Picks**"),subtitle ="Shows Final Four odds from Bart Torvik compared to Yahoo bracket picks by the public for the 2025 NCAA men's basketball tournament." ) |> gt::tab_source_note(source_note = gt::html("<hr>Data through March 18, 2025 games<hr><br><b>Table by Ryan at Fifth Factor and Chris at Bless your chart <br> data via barttorvik.com, yahoo.com, + cbbplotR</b>" ) ) |> gt::tab_options (source_notes.font.size = gt::px(10),row.striping.background_color ='#EEEEEE',table.font.size = gt::px(12),column_labels.text_transform ='uppercase' ) |> gt::tab_style(locations = gt::cells_column_labels(),style = gt::cell_text(weight =850, ) ) |> gt::tab_options(table.width = gt::px(385)) -> f4_tbl gtUtils::gt_save_crop( f4_tbl,file ="f4_tbl.png",whitespace =40,bg ="white")f4_tbl
Final Four Odds vs Yahoo Bracket Picks
Shows Final Four odds from Bart Torvik compared to Yahoo bracket picks by the public for the 2025 NCAA men's basketball tournament.
Odds
Seed
Region
Pick %
50.7%
Houston
1
Midwest
46.0%
49.3%
Duke
1
East
66.0%
46.1%
Auburn
1
South
52.0%
40.3%
Florida
1
West
58.0%
19.2%
Alabama
2
East
18.0%
17.9%
Texas Tech
3
West
7.0%
17.6%
Tennessee
2
Midwest
26.0%
15.8%
Iowa St.
3
South
6.0%
13.9%
Maryland
4
West
4.0%
13.8%
Michigan St.
2
South
27.0%
10.8%
Arizona
4
East
4.0%
10.2%
St. John’s
2
West
19.0%
8.2%
Wisconsin
3
East
6.0%
6.9%
Kentucky
3
Midwest
11.0%
4.6%
Clemson
5
Midwest
4.0%
3.2%
Michigan
5
South
5.0%
Data through March 18, 2025 games
Table by Ryan at Fifth Factor and Chris at Bless your chart
data via barttorvik.com, yahoo.com, + cbbplotR