128: Duke and UNC point spreads, and runs!

gtUtils
Published

January 30, 2025

Load point spread data

Code 
library(rlang)
library(cbbplotR)

# this data is from betiq from teamrankings 
# https://betiq.teamrankings.com/college-basketball/betting-trends/custom-trend-tool/?select_team=N+Carolina&select_opp=Duke
duke_unc <- readr::read_csv("duke-unc-ps.csv") |> 
  dplyr::mutate(
        date = format(lubridate::mdy(date), "%B %d, %Y"),
        score = dplyr::if_else(
            unc_score > duke_score, 
            paste0("UNC ", unc_score, ", Duke ", duke_score),
            paste0("Duke ", duke_score, ", UNC ", unc_score)
        ),
        location = dplyr::case_when(
            location == "Away" ~ "Cameron Indoor Stadium",
            location == "Neutral" & spread == 26.0 ~ "Charlotte Coliseum",
            location == "Neutral" & spread == 12.0 ~ "Charlotte Coliseum",
            location == "Home" ~ "Dean E. Smith Center",
            TRUE ~ location
        )
    ) |> 
    cbbplotR::gt_cbb_teams(winner, winner, include_name = FALSE) |> 
    dplyr::select(date, winner, score, location, spread, unc_cover)

Load run data from bigballR

Code 
# big assist from Connor over at https://github.com/cobrastats
# commenting out all the code, and saving as a CSV to make the data static
# sched <- bigballR::get_team_schedule(team.name="North Carolina",season="2024-25")
# pbp <- bigballR::get_play_by_play(sched$Game_ID) |> 
#   dplyr::filter(Shot_Value %in% c(1,2,3) & Event_Result=="made")

# run_pbp <- pbp |>
#   dplyr::group_by(ID) |>
#   dplyr::arrange(Game_Seconds) |>
#   dplyr::mutate(run = cumsum(Event_Team != lag(Event_Team, default = first(Event_Team))) + 1) |>
#   dplyr::ungroup()

# # Calculate scoring runs

# shots <- run_pbp |>
#   dplyr::group_by(ID,run) |>
#   dplyr::summarise(run_team = first(Event_Team),
#                    def_team = if_else(run_team==first(Home),first(Away),first(Home)),
#                    run_length = sum(Shot_Value),
#                    start_score = if_else(run_team==first(Home),paste0(first(Home_Score)-first(Shot_Value),"-",first(Away_Score)),
#                                          paste0(first(Away_Score)-first(Shot_Value),"-",first(Home_Score))),
#                    end_score = if_else(run_team==first(Home),paste0(last(Home_Score),"-",last(Away_Score)),
#                                        paste0(last(Away_Score),"-",last(Home_Score))),
#                    run_start = paste0(first(Half_Status),"H-",first(Time)),
#                    run_end = paste0(last(Half_Status),"H-",last(Time))) |>
#   dplyr::arrange(desc(run_length)) |>
#   dplyr::select(-run) |>
#   dplyr::ungroup()

# run_data <- shots |> 
#   dplyr::filter(run_length > 5) |> 
#   dplyr::group_by(
#     opponent = dplyr::if_else(run_team == "North Carolina", def_team, run_team),
#     run_by_nc = run_team == "North Carolina"
#   ) |> 
#   dplyr::summarise(
#     total_run_points = sum(run_length),
#     avg_run_length = mean(run_length),
#     n_runs = dplyr::n(),
#   ) |> 
#   tidyr::pivot_wider(
#     names_from = run_by_nc,
#     values_from = c(total_run_points, avg_run_length, n_runs),
#     names_glue = "{ifelse(run_by_nc == TRUE, 'unc', 'opp')}_{.value}",
#     values_fill = 0
#   ) |> 
#   dplyr::mutate(
#     point_diff = unc_total_run_points - opp_total_run_points,
#     run_diff = unc_n_runs - opp_n_runs
#   ) |> 
#   # Order by opponent run points
#   dplyr::arrange(desc(opp_total_run_points)) |> 
#   dplyr::select(opponent, 
#                 opp_n_runs, 
#                 opp_avg_run_length,
#                 opp_total_run_points, 
#                 point_diff,
#                 run_diff, 
#                 unc_n_runs,
#                 unc_avg_run_length,
#                 unc_total_run_points)

run_data <- readr::read_csv("runs_data.csv") |> 
  dplyr::select(-1)

Point spread table

Code 
custom_header <- glue::glue(
  "<div style='display: flex; justify-content: space-between; align-items: center;'>
      <div>
       <img src='https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/153.png'
       style='height: 45px; width: auto; vertical-align: middle;'>
     </div>
     <div style='flex-grow:1; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 30px'>
       <span style='display: block; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; font-size: 24px;'>North Carolina as a double-digit underdog against Duke</span>
       <span style='font-size: 12px; font-weight: normal; display: block; text-align: center;'>Since 1998, North Carolina is 10-5 against the spread with three outright wins as a double-digit underdog against Duke.<br>Expect the Blue Devils to be favored by ~15 points on Saturday.</span>
     </div>
     <div>
       <img src='https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/150.png'
       style='height: 40px; width: auto; vertical-align: middle;'>
     </div>
   </div>
  <br>"
)

duke_tbl <- duke_unc |>
  dplyr::select(date, location, spread, unc_cover, score, winner) |>
  gt::gt() |>
  gtUtils::gt_theme_gtutils() |>
  gtExtras::gt_merge_stack(
    col1 = date,
    col2 = location,
    palette = c("black", "#707070")
  ) |>
  gt::fmt_markdown(winner) |>
  gt::fmt_tf(
    columns = unc_cover,
    tf_style = "check-mark",
    colors = c("#56a0d3", "#003087"),
  ) |>
  gt::fmt(
    columns = c(spread),
    fns = function(x) {
      ifelse(x > 0, paste0("+", x), x)
    }
  ) |>
  gtUtils::gt_column_subheaders(
    date = list(heading = "Date", subtitle = "Location"),
    winner = list(heading = "Winner", subtitle = "Outright"),
    score = list(heading = "Score", subtitle = "Final"),
    spread = list(heading = "Spread", subtitle = "UNC as Underdog"),
    unc_cover = list(heading = "Cover?", subtitle = "UNC"),
    heading_color = "black",
    subtitle_color = "gray"
  ) |>
  gt::tab_header(title = gt::html(custom_header)) |>
  gt::tab_source_note(
    source_note =
      gt::html(
        "<hr>Data via TeamRankings.com's BetIQ tool, theme via {gtUtils} and logos from ESPN.<hr><b>Table by Chris at Bless your chart</b>"
      )
  ) |>
  gtUtils::gt_border_bars_bottom(c("#56a0d3", "#89BDE0", "#BBD9ED")) |>
  gt::tab_options(table.width = gt::px(550)) |>
  gtUtils::gt_border_grid(color = "black",
                          weight = 1,
                          include_labels = FALSE) |>
  gt::tab_style(
    locations = gt::cells_source_notes(),
    style = gt::cell_text(
      font = gt::google_font("Signika Negative"),
      size = gt::px(11.5),
      weight = 250
    )
  ) |>
  gt::tab_style(
    style = list(gt::cell_text(font = gt::google_font("Signika Negative"))),
    locations = gt::cells_body(columns = everything())
  ) |>
  gt::cols_align(columns = c(winner, spread), align = "right") |>
  gt::cols_align(columns = c(date, score, unc_cover), align = "left") |>
  gtExtras::gt_highlight_rows(rows = c(8, 13, 14), fill = "#d0e4f3") |>
  gt::tab_style(
    style = list(gt::cell_text(
      font = gt::google_font("Signika Negative"),
      color = "#003087"
    )),
    locations = gt::cells_body(columns = c(score), rows = c(1:7, 9:11, 15))
  ) |>
  gt::tab_style(style = list(gt::cell_text(
    font = gt::google_font("Signika Negative"),
    color = "#56a0d3"
  )),
  locations = gt::cells_body(columns = c(spread)))


gtUtils::gt_save_crop(duke_tbl,
                      file = "duke_unc.png",
                      whitespace = 60,
                      bg = "#FFFDF5")

duke_tbl
North Carolina as a double-digit underdog against Duke Since 1998, North Carolina is 10-5 against the spread with three outright wins as a double-digit underdog against Duke.
Expect the Blue Devils to be favored by ~15 points on Saturday.

Date
Location
Spread
UNC as Underdog
Cover?
UNC
Score
Final
Winner
Outright
March 03, 2002
Cameron Indoor Stadium
+28 ✔ Duke 93, UNC 68

March 08, 2002
Charlotte Coliseum
+26 ✔ Duke 60, UNC 48

January 31, 2002
Dean E. Smith Center
+17 ✘ Duke 87, UNC 58

January 27, 1999
Cameron Indoor Stadium
+16 ✔ Duke 89, UNC 77

March 06, 2010
Cameron Indoor Stadium
+15 ✘ Duke 82, UNC 50

February 05, 2003
Cameron Indoor Stadium
+14 ✔ Duke 83, UNC 74

March 07, 1999
Charlotte Coliseum
+12 ✘ Duke 96, UNC 73

March 05, 2022
Cameron Indoor Stadium
+11 ✔ UNC 94, Duke 81

March 04, 2000
Cameron Indoor Stadium
+11 ✘ Duke 90, UNC 76

March 07, 2020
Cameron Indoor Stadium
+10.5 ✘ Duke 89, UNC 76

February 13, 2013
Cameron Indoor Stadium
+10.5 ✔ Duke 73, UNC 68

February 09, 2011
Cameron Indoor Stadium
+10.5 ✔ Duke 79, UNC 73

February 01, 2001
Cameron Indoor Stadium
+10.5 ✔ UNC 85, Duke 83

February 20, 2019
Cameron Indoor Stadium
+10 ✔ UNC 88, Duke 72

March 06, 2004
Cameron Indoor Stadium
+9.5 ✔ Duke 70, UNC 65

Data via TeamRankings.com's BetIQ tool, theme via {gtUtils} and logos from ESPN.
Table by Chris at Bless your chart

Run data table

Code 
run_header <- glue::glue(
  "<div style='display: flex; justify-content: space-between; align-items: center;'>
      <div>
       <img src='https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/153.png'
       style='height: 45px; width: auto; vertical-align: middle;'>
     </div>
     <div style='flex-grow:1; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 30px'>
       <span style='display: block; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; font-size: 24px;'>North Carolina: Scoring Spurts by Opponent</span>
       <span style='font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; display: block; text-align: center;'>Shows scoring runs of 6+ points or more in a given game. <br>Carolina is 13-9 overall and 6-4 in the ACC through January 28 games.</span>
     </div>
     <div>
       <img src='https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/redesign/assets/img/icons/ESPN-icon-basketball.png'
       style='height: 40px; width: auto; vertical-align: middle;'>
     </div>
   </div>
  <br>"
)

run_tbl <- run_data |>
  cbbplotR::gt_cbb_teams(opponent, opponent) |>
  gt::gt() |>
  gt::cols_hide(run_diff) |>
  gtUtils::gt_theme_gtutils() |>
  gt::fmt_markdown(opponent) |>
  gt::fmt(
    columns = c(point_diff),
    fns = function(x) {
      ifelse(x > 0, paste0("+", x), x)
    }
  ) |>
  gtUtils::gt_column_subheaders(
    opp_n_runs = list(heading = "#", subtitle = "6+ points"),
    opp_avg_run_length = list(heading = "Avg", subtitle = "Points"),
    opp_total_run_points = list(heading = "Total", subtitle = "From spurts"),
    point_diff = list(heading = "+/-", subtitle = "From Runs"),
    unc_n_runs = list(heading = "#", subtitle = "6+ points"),
    unc_avg_run_length = list(heading = "Avg", subtitle = "Points"),
    unc_total_run_points = list(heading = "Total", subtitle = "From spurts"),
    heading_color = "black",
    subtitle_color = "gray"
  ) |>
  gt::tab_header(title = gt::html(run_header)) |>
  gt::tab_source_note(
    source_note =
      gt::html(
        "<hr>Data via bigballR + theme via {gtUtils} and logos from ESPN.<hr><b>Table by Chris at Bless your chart | data through January 28 games</b>"
      )
  ) |>
  gt::tab_spanner(label = "Opponent Spurts", columns = starts_with("opp_")) |>
  gt::tab_spanner(label = "UNC Spurts", columns = starts_with("unc_")) |>
  gt::fmt_number(columns = c(unc_avg_run_length, opp_avg_run_length),
                 decimals = 1) |>
  gt::data_color(columns = c(point_diff),
                 colors = scales::col_bin(
                   bins = c(-Inf, 0, Inf),
                   palette = c("#ffe7e7", "#d0e4f3")
                 )) |>
  gtUtils::gt_border_bars_bottom(c("#56a0d3", "#89BDE0", "#BBD9ED")) |>
  gt::tab_options(table.width = gt::px(675)) |>
  gtUtils::gt_border_grid(color = "black",
                          weight = 0.5,
                          include_labels = FALSE) |>
  gtExtras::gt_add_divider(columns = point_diff,
                           sides = "left",
                           color = "black") |>
  gtExtras::gt_add_divider(columns = point_diff,
                           sides = "right",
                           color = "black") |>
  gt::tab_style(
    locations = gt::cells_source_notes(),
    style = gt::cell_text(
      font = gt::google_font("Signika Negative"),
      size = gt::px(11.5),
      weight = 250
    )
  ) |>
  gt::tab_style(
    style = list(gt::cell_text(font = gt::google_font("Signika Negative"))),
    locations = gt::cells_body(columns = everything())
  ) |>
  gt::tab_style(
    locations = gt::cells_column_spanners(),
    style = gt::cell_text(
      font = gt::google_font("Signika Negative"),
      weight = 850,
      size = gt::px(15)
    )
  ) |>
  gt::cols_align(columns = c(opponent), align = "left") |>
  gt::cols_label(opponent = "") |>
  gtExtras::gt_highlight_rows( # this is silly 
    rows = c(1, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22),
    columns = c(opponent),
    fill = "#d0e4f3"
  ) |>
  gtExtras::gt_highlight_rows(
    rows = c(2:7, 13, 14, 20),
    columns = c(opponent),
    fill = "#ffe7e7"
  )

gtUtils::gt_save_crop(run_tbl,
                      file = "run_unc.png",
                      whitespace = 60,
                      bg = "#FFFDF5")

run_tbl
North Carolina: Scoring Spurts by Opponent Shows scoring runs of 6+ points or more in a given game.
Carolina is 13-9 overall and 6-4 in the ACC through January 28 games.

Opponent Spurts
+/-
From Runs
UNC Spurts
#
6+ points
Avg
Points
Total
From spurts
#
6+ points
Avg
Points
Total
From spurts

UCLA

 5 7.6 38 -6 4 8.0 32

Florida

 5 7.4 37 -15 2 11.0 22

Kansas

 4 8.0 32 -16 2 8.0 16

Pittsburgh

 4 7.8 31 -6 4 6.2 25

Wake Forest

 4 7.8 31 -6 4 6.2 25

Auburn

 4 7.5 30 +1 4 7.8 31

Michigan St.

 4 7.5 30 -17 2 6.5 13

Elon

 3 9.0 27 +21 6 8.0 48

SMU

 4 6.2 25 +11 5 7.2 36

Hawaii

 4 6.0 24 +9 4 8.2 33

Notre Dame

 3 8.0 24 -4 3 6.7 20

North Carolina St.

 3 7.0 21 -5 2 8.0 16

Louisville

 2 9.5 19 -11 1 8.0 8

Alabama

 2 7.5 15 +18 5 6.6 33

Campbell

 2 6.0 12 +29 6 6.8 41

Dayton

 1 11.0 11 +3 2 7.0 14

Boston College

 1 6.0 6 +27 5 6.6 33

Georgia Tech

 1 6.0 6 +7 1 13.0 13

La Salle

 1 6.0 6 +39 5 9.0 45

Stanford

 1 6.0 6 +6 2 6.0 12

American

 0 0.0 0 +70 9 7.8 70

California

 0 0.0 0 +22 2 11.0 22
Data via bigballR + theme via {gtUtils} and logos from ESPN.
Table by Chris at Bless your chart | data through January 28 games